Reliability and Forced Outages: Survival Analysis with Recurrent Events

Majah-Leah Ravago, Karl Robert Jandoc and Miah Maye Pormon
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Karl Robert Jandoc: School of Economics, University of the Philippines
Miah Maye Pormon: University of the Philippines

No 202303, Department of Economics, Ateneo de Manila University, Working Paper Series from Department of Economics, Ateneo de Manila University

Abstract: This paper empirically investigates the contributory factors to forced outage declarations of power plants through a survival analysis model with recurring events. Using plant-level data in the Philippines, we find that higher reserve margins, higher share capacity (a measure of concentration) and the number of planned outages and days since the last maintenance (preventive maintenance indicators) reduce the risk of forced outages. On the other hand, an increase in the use rate (a measure of the intensity of power plant utilization), and geothermal, solar and biodiesel plants correlate positively to more forced outages. Focusing on episodes where outages were disproportionately higher in the past decade— we find that thinning reserve margin correlates significantly to forced outage incidence. This may indicate potential tacit coordination among generators to withhold capacity in the short run.

Keywords: forced outage; survival analysis; recurring events; Philippines (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: K32 N75 Q41 Q48 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30 pages
Date: 2023-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-sea
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Journal Article: Reliability and forced outages: Survival analysis with recurrent events (2023)
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