Electoral earthquake: natural disasters and the geography of discontent
Augusto Cerqua (),
Chiara Ferrante and
No 2021-03, Discussion Paper series in Regional Science & Economic Geography from Gran Sasso Science Institute, Social Sciences
The recent literature on the determinants of populism has highlighted the role of long-term trends of progressive isolation and prolonged economic stagnation in engendering discontent and, in turn, demand for political change. We investigate, instead, the potential of unanticipated local shocks in shaping the â€˜geography of discontentâ€™. Using comprehensive data at a fine spatial scale and a comparative natural experiment approach, we document that the occurrence of two destructive earthquakes in Italy resulted in sharply diverging electoral outcomes: while the 2012 Emilia quake did not alter voting behaviour, the 2009 Lâ€™Aquila earthquake paved the way for an impressive and persistent surge in right-wing populism in the most affected areas. Such heterogeneous patterns mainly originate from a stark contrast in post-disaster reconstruction processes and shifts in institutional trust. Our findings are consistent with the idea that not only â€œplaces that donâ€™t matterâ€ , but also â€œplaces that donâ€™t recoverâ€ , can become populist hotbeds.
Keywords: elections; populism; discontent; natural disasters; earthquakes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 H12 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 64 pages
Date: 2021-03, Revised 2021-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env, nep-pol and nep-ure
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Working Paper: Electoral Earthquake: Natural Disasters and the Geography of Discontent (2021)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp14
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