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ENSO Climate Patterns on Global Economic Conditions

Gilles Dufrénot (), William Ginn () and Marc Pourroy
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Gilles Dufrénot: Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France.,
William Ginn: LabCorp, Economist / Data Scientist, USA

No 2308, AMSE Working Papers from Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France

Abstract: We investigate the role of ENSO climate patterns on global economic conditions. The estimated model is based on a rich and novel monthly dataset for 20 economies, capturing 80.2% of global output (based on 2021 IMF data) over the period 1999:01 to 2022:03. The empirical evidence from an estimated global vector autoregression with local projections (GFAVLP) model links an El Niño (EN) shock with higher output and inflation, corresponding with lower global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU). While a shock to the world oil and food price is inflationary, a food price shock leads to elevated GEPU, more so during a LN shock. A main finding is that an increase of the food price can be a source of global vulnerability. The findings indicate that the weather shock impact on global economic conditions is dependent on the climate state. Our result undermines existing studies connecting climate change and economic damage via statistical approach.

Keywords: Weather; Oil and Food Prices; Global Macroeconometric Modeling; and Economic Policy Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 F44 O13 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24 pages
Date: 2023-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env
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