The Effect of Mass Migration on Economic Development

Betul Turkum ()
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Betul Turkum: Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France, https://www.amse-aixmarseille.fr/en/members/turkum

No 2332, AMSE Working Papers from Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France

Abstract: The Syrian refugee crisis is one of the significant humanitarian challenges of the 21st century, and Turkey is among the countries significantly impacted. This study analyzes the impact of the approximately 3.65 million Syrian refugees residing in Turkey on economic development proxied by GDP per capita. Since Turkish provinces faced distinctive rises in refugee numbers after the Syrian Civil War, I exploit the differences in the proportion of refugees across different Turkish provinces to estimate refugees' impact on economic development using a difference-indifferences methodology. To address the potential selection bias arising from the refugees' settlement patterns, I employ a two-stage least squares (2SLS) method. Results offer suggestive evidence of a positive medium-term effect and a negative long-term effect of the arrival of refugees on economic development, while the short-term effect is unclear. However, none of the impacts are statistically significant.

Keywords: Refugees; economic development; Regional Variation; Difference-in Differences; Instrumental Variable; GDP per capita (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F22 J15 O15 O17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 43 pages
Date: 2023-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2332

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