The Dynamic Effects of Weather Shocks on Agricultural Production

Cédric Crofils (), Ewen Gallic and Gauthier Vermandel
Additional contact information
Cédric Crofils: LEDa, Paris-Dauphine & PSL Universities, Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France

No 2402, AMSE Working Papers from Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France

Abstract: This paper investigates the dynamic effects of weather shocks on monthly agricultural production in Peru, using a Local Projection framework. An adverse weather shock, measured by an excess of heat or rain, always generates a delayed negative downturn in agricultural production, but its magnitude and duration depend on several factors, such as the type of crop concerned or the timing at which it occurs. On average, a weather shock –a temperature shock– can cause a monthly decline of 5% in agricultural production for up to four consecutive months. The response is time-dependent: shocks occurring during the growing season exhibit a much larger response. At the macroeconomic level, weather shocks are recessionary and entail a decline in inflation, agricultural production, exports, exchange rate and GDP.

Keywords: weather shocks; agriculture; Local projections; VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 E32 Q11 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34 pages
Date: 2024-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-dev and nep-env
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.amse-aixmarseille.fr/sites/default/fil ... _2024_-_nr_02_v2.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2402

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in AMSE Working Papers from Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France AMU-AMSE - 5-9 Boulevard Maurice Bourdet, CS 50498 - 13205 Marseille Cedex 1. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Gregory Cornu ().