Demographic Winter, Economic Structure and Productivity in Japan

Gilles Dufrénot (), Mathilde Esposito () and Eva Moreno-Galbis ()
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Gilles Dufrénot: Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France, https://www.amse-aixmarseille.fr/en/members/dufrenot
Mathilde Esposito: Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France, https://www.amse-aixmarseille.fr/en/members/esposito
Eva Moreno-Galbis: Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France, https://www.amse-aixmarseille.fr/fr/membres/moreno-galbis

No 2426, AMSE Working Papers from Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France

Abstract: Low fertility rates, mortality outstripping the birth rate and population contraction characterize a new demographic transition (the so-called "fifth stage"). This paper seeks to evaluate how this phenomenon has impacted the Japanese economic structure and overall productivity. We test two key mechanisms that have been at play since the mid-2000s: i) a growing complementarity between goods and services consumption, and ii) the substitution of older workers engaged in routine tasks with technological capital. According to Autor and Dorn’s (2013) model, this should promote the concentration of low-skilled workers in the service sector, and aggravate productivity gaps between industry and services. Using stochastic frontier models and EU-KLEMS data, we compute industry-by-industry TFP growth frontiers in order to check if theoretical predictions match with Japanese reality.

Keywords: emographic transition; productivity; technological change; economic structure; Japan. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 J14 O47 O53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 51 pages
Date: 2024-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-eff and nep-evo
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2426

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