Covid-19 vaccine benefit during the Omicron wave in France

Michel Lubrano () and Pierre Michel ()
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Michel Lubrano: Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France, https://www.amse-aixmarseille.fr/en/members/lubrano
Pierre Michel: Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France, https://www.amse-aixmarseille.fr/en/members/michel

No 2528, AMSE Working Papers from Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France

Abstract: During the Covid-19 pandemic, the Omicron wave was notable for its highly transmissible and contagious variant of concern, coinciding with the availability of a vaccine that has been rolled out well earlier. In this paper, we address two key questions. First, we seek todesign a simple epidemiological model that can best capture the dynamics of Omicron infections. We demonstrate that combining the SIRDand SISD models provides an adequate solution. The second question examines the benefits of vaccination, in terms of both economicactivity and lives saved, once the model is implemented. Our results show that without vaccination, the human cost would have been fivetimes higher, and production losses would have doubled, due to stricter con- finement measures and a higher death toll. We also quantify the cost of vaccine hesitancy at more than 8,000 extra deaths.

Keywords: Compartment models; COVID-19; Omicron wave; vaccination benefit; vaccine hesitation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31 pages
Date: 2025-06
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2528

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