The Spread of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Time and Space

Christian Hafner

No 2020031, LIDAM Reprints ISBA from Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA)

Abstract: As the COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on public health and global economies in 2020; it is crucial to understand how it developed and spread in time and space. This paper contributes to the growing literature by considering the dynamics of country-wise growth rates of infection numbers. Low-order serial correlation of growth rates is predominantly negative with cycles of two to four days for most countries. The results of fitted spatial autoregressive models suggest that there is high degree of spillover between countries. Forecast variances of many countries, in particular those with a high absolute number of infections, can to a large extent be explained by structural innovations of other countries. A better understanding of the serial and spatial dynamics of the spread of the pandemic may contribute to an improved containment and risk management.

Keywords: corona virus, spatial autoregressions, stochastic cycles, contagion; LASSO, networks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-05-28
Note: In: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health - Vol. 17, no.11, p. 3827 (2020)
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Journal Article: The Spread of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Time and Space (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aiz:louvar:2020031

DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17113827

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