A spline-based time-varying reproduction number for modelling epidemiological outbreaks

Eugen Pircalabelu ()
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Eugen Pircalabelu: Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/ISBA, Belgium

No 2023017, LIDAM Reprints ISBA from Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA)

Abstract: We develop in this manuscript a method for performing estimation and inference for the reproduction number of an epidemiological outbreak, focusing on the COVID-19 epidemic. The estimator is time-dependent and uses spline modelling to adapt to changes in the outbreak. This is accomplished by directly modelling the series of new infections as a function of time and subsequently using the derivative of the function to define a time-varying reproduction number, which is then used to assess the evolution of the epidemic for several countries.

Keywords: COVID-19; reproduction number; spline modelling; time dependency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30
Date: 2023-06-30
Note: In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics, 2023, vol. 72(3), p. 688-702
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aiz:louvar:2023017

DOI: 10.1093/jrsssc/qlad027

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