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The Importance of Terms of Trade Shocks: Kazakhstan

Alisher Tolepbergen ()

No 4, NAC Analytica Working Paper from NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University

Abstract: The conventional wisdom assumes that terms of trade shocks are the main drivers of business cycle dynamics in emerging exporting economies. This paper studies the effect of terms of trade shocks on key macroeconomic variables for the Kazakhstani economy. Empirical SVAR model estimates suggest that the terms of trade shocks account for 12 % of output variation for the economy. Further, three sectoral DSGE model with estimated structural parameters predict the modest importance of the terms of trade shocks for small open economy.

Keywords: Terms of Trade; DSGE; SVAR; Kazakhstan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B22 C32 C61 E17 E32 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30 pages
Date: 2019-12, Revised 2020-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-dge, nep-int, nep-mac and nep-ore
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ajx:wpaper:4

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