Conventional Views and Asset Prices: What to Expect After Times of Extreme Opinions?

J. Daniel Aromi

No 2016-15, Documentos de trabajo del Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET) from Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET)

Abstract: This study evaluates the performance of stock market indices after times of extreme opinions. The underlying conjecture is that extreme opinions are associated to overreactions in the perception of wealth. The analysis covers 34 countries from 1988 through 2013. In a novel approach, views regarding economic performance are approximated using content in the global economic press. Consistent with the overreaction conjecture, stock market indices are shown to under-perform following extreme optimistic views and over-perform after pessimistic views. A longshort contrarian portfolio earns 11% annually over the next five years. This persistent and predictable difference in returns cannot be explained by risk considerations and cannot be replicated using alternative strategies based on past returns or past economic growth.

Keywords: Asset prices; Opinions; Expectations; Overreaction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D84 G12 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28 pages
Date: 2016-12
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Related works:
Journal Article: Conventional views and asset prices: What to expect after times of extreme opinions (2017)
Journal Article: Conventional Views and Asset Prices: What to Expect After Times of Extreme Opinions? (2017)
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