Market Efficiency Perspective of Precious Metals: Evidence from Developed and Emerging Economies

Hafiz Muhammad Usman Rana, Fergal O'Connor (), Erez Yerushalmi and H. Jae Kim

No 28, CAFE Working Papers from Centre for Accountancy, Finance and Economics (CAFE), Birmingham City Business School, Birmingham City University

Abstract: This study examines the weak-form market efficiency of international precious metals markets (Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium) using data from 9 domestic markets in their local currencies - rather than a US Dollar price as in most previous studies. We do this by using the Automatic Portmanteau test, Automatic Variance Ratio test, Autoboot Variance ratio test and Generalized Spectral Shape test to look at their evolving efficiency over time.The findings of this study suggest that market efficiency for four precious metals varies over time across both developed and emerging markets. The variation in market efficiency could be attributable to cyclical developments due to technology and the economic cycle. That they do not tend to efficiency together indicates that these markets are fragmented and not as interconnected as might have been assumed due to a variety of factors such as local regulations, market complexity, and differences in the market structure in each country.

Keywords: Adaptive markets hypothesis; Martingale difference hypothesis; Market Efficiency; Precious Metals; Gold (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-03-25
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fmk and nep-ifn
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