Introducing the Portuguese Macro-Fiscal (PMF) model: A framework for projecting the Portuguese Economy

Nuno Gonçalves and Andre Moreira

No 01/2018, CFP Working Papers from Portuguese Public Finance Council

Abstract: This paper gives an overview of the current version of the Portuguese Macro-Fiscal (PMF) model, an estimated quarterly macroeconometric model of the Portuguese economy that is the central tool used by the Portuguese Public Finance Council (CFP) for producing its medium-term macroeconomic projections. The specification of the macro side of the model broadly follows those developed by several Eurosystem central banks, in the tradition of the neoclassical synthesis, appropriately adapted to the Portuguese case. The key extension to this framework – one that reflects CFP’s mission – has been the inclusion of a rich, disaggregated fiscal block. The structure and specification of the model are briefly discussed, and its properties are illustrated through shock simulation exercises.

Keywords: macroeconometric model; forecast; simulation; Portugal (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C3 C5 E1 E2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 12 pages
Date: 2018-03
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:alf:wpaper:2018-01

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