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A new approach to energetic system modeling

Roma Siugzdaite and Saulius Norvaisas
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Roma Siugzdaite: Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, Lithuania

No PO8, CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 from Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance

Abstract: Self­organized criticality (SOC) is a state characteristic for wide range of natural and artificial systems. The distinguish feature of such systems is the parabolic dependence of number of agents N from magnitude m. As a rule, agents of big magnitude are rare and small magnitude agents prevail. This distribution can be found in various areas such as national system of companies, biological systems etc. These systems are dynamically stable and the permanent adaptation is guaranteed. In this work is shown that Lithuanian energetic system (with respect to generators, distributors and customers) is in SOC state with the dynamic equilibrium. This system has been analyzed in extreme generation and transmission cost variation. Using optimization methods we can see that large present generators are not useful because of big expenses in electricity transmission. On another hand, if generation would be decentralized as much as possible, transmission losses would be minimal, but organization and maintenance of generation would cost. However existence of both extremes is optimal in dynamic sense, because in the future when new economic electricity transmission materials appear (superconductors) large generators will be in great demand and when effective methods of controlling and administration will be created, then small generators will be in demand. Therefore we can assert that state of energetic system is optimal with respect to SOC.

Date: 2001-01-04
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