Begging thy coworker – Labor market dualization and the slow-down of wage growth in Europe

Lukas Lehner, Paul Ramskogler and Aleksandra Riedl (aleksandra.riedl@oenb.at)

INET Oxford Working Papers from Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford

Abstract: Does the structure of labor markets – and the possibility to employ temporary workers – a↵ect aggregate wage growth? After the global financial crisis (GFC) a rich debate had ensued about the reasons for the delayed pick up of wage growth. However, structural labor market aspects remained strangely absent from this discussion. We contribute by incorporating labor market dualization into the standard Phillips curve model to explain wage growth in 30 European countries in the period 2004-2017. We find that the presence of workers with temporary contracts in Europe's labor markets slows down aggregate wage growth due to the competition that temporary workers exert on permanent workers. This competition e↵ect is most pronounced in countries, where trade union density is low. Moreover, we establish that labor market dualization has been at least as important in slowing wage growth since the GFC as unemployment, i.e. the observed flattening of the Phillips curve.

Keywords: Wage Growth; Labor Market Dualization; Involuntary Temporary Work; Phillips Curve; Competition effect (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J31 J42 J82 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 52 pages
Date: 2022-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-iue and nep-lab
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:amz:wpaper:2022-04

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