Climate policy reforms and the acceleration of solar and wind diffusion

Brendon Tankwa, Emilien Ravigné () and J. Doyne Farmer
Additional contact information
Emilien Ravigné: The Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford

INET Oxford Working Papers from Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford

Abstract: We study how climate policies shaped solar and wind deployment in 49 OECD+ countries from 1990 to 2023. Combining capacity data with policy stringency from the OECD Climate Actions and Policies Measurement Framework, we estimate event-study difference-in-differences models for diffusion speed (the annual growth rate of log installed capacity) around policy onsets and strengthenings, and embed these responses in an S-curve framework to map growth-rate changes into counterfactual capacity paths. Three findings stand out. First, policy design and timing matter more than simple presence: positive feed in tariff (price and duration) reforms and renewable expansion planning reliably accelerate deployment, while carbon pricing, emissions trading systems, and renewable portfolio standards do not show robust short-run effects; coal exit measures yield delayed gains, mainly for solar. Second, policy-induced increases in growth rates are transient but cumulate into level differences: relative to a no-policy diffusion baseline, the policy bundle roughly doubles solar capacity and increases wind capacity by about 30 percent, with feed-in tariffs and renewable expansion planning accounting for most of this boost. Significant cross-country heterogeneity exists in total policy-induced boosts, along with a moderate correlation between solar and wind outcomes. Third, effectiveness depends on the stage of diffusion and on technology: well-designed deployment support introduced at low penetration delivers much larger proportional gains than the same instruments implemented later, and solar is more policy-sensitive than wind. The results imply that policy portfolios aimed at rapid decarbonisation should prioritise early, credible deployment support tailored to technology and system constraints, rather than economy-wide pricing instruments.

Keywords: Technology diffusion; solar/wind adoption; Policy Impacts; Feed-in-Tariffs; Grid integration; Coal phase-out; Auctions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 129 pages
Date: 2026-01
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://oms-inet.files.svdcdn.com/production/files ... ys.pdf?dm=1768317639 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:amz:wpaper:2026-01

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in INET Oxford Working Papers from Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by INET Oxford admin team ().