Interpreting diffusion curves in sociotechnical transitions: how to use S-curves without fooling yourself

Brendon Tankwa

INET Oxford Working Papers from Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford

Abstract: S-curves are widely used to describe and forecast technological change, especially in debates on energy transitions, emerging technologies, and industrial transformation. Yet they are also widely misused. This perspective argues that the main problem usually does not lie in the curve itself, but in how it is interpreted. It develops a practical framework for reading diffusion curves in sociotechnical transitions, organised around six recurring sources of error: level, stage, object, purpose, interpretation, and horizon. The article shows why cumulative stocks, annual additions, market shares, and substitution processes should not be treated as interchangeable; why formative-phase technologies are especially vulnerable to overconfident curve fitting; and why levels, logs, and growth rates imply different notions of speed and acceleration. Drawing on classic diffusion theory, forecasting research, and examples from solar, wind, and other technologies, it argues that S-curves are best treated as empirical regularities rather than causal mechanisms or universal laws. Used carefully, they provide disciplined summaries, useful benchmarks, and clearer interpretations of transition dynamics. Used carelessly, they can turn noisy, path-dependent, and politically contested processes into stories of inevitability.

Keywords: S-curves; diffusion curves; sociotechnical transitions; innovation diffusion; technological forecasting; energy transitions; technology adoption (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 18 pages
Date: 2026-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-hme
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://oms-inet.files.svdcdn.com/production/files ... 26.pdf?dm=1775060814 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:amz:wpaper:2026-09

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in INET Oxford Working Papers from Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by INET Oxford admin team ().