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Forecasting US bond yields at weekly frequency

Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti () and Giulio Palomba ()

No 261, Working Papers from Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali

Abstract: Forecasting models for bond yields often use macro data to improve their properties. Unfortunately, macro data are not available at frequencies higher than monthly. In order to mitigate this problem, we propose a nonlinear VEC model with conditional heteroskedasticity (NECH) and find that such model has superior in-sample performance than models which fail to encompass nonlinearities and/or GARCH-type effects. Out-of-sample forecasts by our model are marginally superior to competing models; however, the data points we used for evaluating forecasts refer to a period of relative tranquillity on the financial markets, whereas we argue that our model should display superior performance under "unusual" circumstances.

Keywords: conditional heteroskedasticity; forecasting; interest rates; nonlinear cointegration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C53 E43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-ets, nep-fmk, nep-for and nep-mac
Date: 2006-05
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:anc:wpaper:261

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