These jobs are going, and they ain't coming back: internal mobility in response to manufacturing decline

Giulia Bettin and Silvia Mattiozzi ()
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Silvia Mattiozzi: Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche

No 501, Working Papers from Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of severe manufacturing crises on internal migration patterns across Italian local labour markets (LLMs) between 2000 and 2019. Leveraging a staggered difference-in-differences design, we estimate the causal effect of these shocks on the mobility of the working-age resident population. The results indicate a significant decline in net migration, primarily driven by an immediate reduction in inflows, which is nearly twice the size of the concurrent rise in outflows to other LLMs. We uncover substantial heterogeneity by citizenship, as foreign nationals are significantly less likely to migrate into affected areas following a crisis, while no systematic differences emerge by gender. The effects are more evident in district-based LLMs, moderately urbanized areas, and those located in Central and Northern Italy. The results are robust across alternative model specifications and difference-in-differences estimators. These findings highlight the uneven impact of manufacturing decline on internal migration patterns across both population groups and LLM characteristics.

Keywords: internal mobility; manufacturing crises; mass lay-offs; local labour markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J61 J63 R23 R58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 43
Date: 2025-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur, nep-lab and nep-mig
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:anc:wpaper:501

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