CRESCIMENTO ENDÓGENO, ENDIVIDAMENTO EXTERNO E CONTROLES DE CAPITAIS: UMA ANÁLISE A PARTIR DE UM MODELO MACRODINÂMICO PÓS-KEYNESIANO

Guilherme Jonas Costa Da Silva (guilhermejonas@yahoo.com.br) and José Luís Oreiro

Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] from ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]

Abstract: The present article develops a post-keynesian macrodynamic model in which the growth rate of real income is an endogenous variable in order to analyze the effects of capital controls over macroeconomic performance of emergent economies. For such we start from the models developed by Oreiro (2004) and Oreiro and Guerberoff (2004). I this framework is possible to reevaluate the impact of capitals controls over long-term dynamics of emergent economies, taking in account possible interactions b capital controls and economic growth. The first important conclusion is that the capitals controls do not affect the stability properties of the long-run equilibrium positions of the model. The simulation results show that introduction of capitals controls is a useful policy to reduce the level of domestic interest rate, to raise economic growth, to increase the degree of capacity utilization and to reduce the level of external indebtedness. However, the deficit in current account was relatively higher with capitals controls.

JEL-codes: E12 E22 F4 F43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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