CÂMBIO, INFLAÇÃO E JUROS NA TRANSIÇÃO DO REGIME CAMBIAL BRASILEIRO: UMA ANÁLISE DE VETORES AUTO-REGRESSIVOS E CAUSALIDADE

Carlos Cardoso and Flavio Vieira

Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] from ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]

Abstract: The present work examines the exchange regime transition in Brazil (1994 to 2003) based on the hypothesis of the existence of changes in the interaction of exchange rate, interest rates and inflation. It also examines to what extent one can say that there was a fear of floating. The results indicate that there was a significant change in the dynamic of such variables when moving from a more rigid to a more flexible regime, supporting our original hypothesis. Regarding the fear of floating, the results for Brazil can be seen as inconclusive since from one point of view they do not follow the same pattern of other experiences with exchange regime transition especially with respect to credibility problems where Brazil does not seem to face. On the other hand the results are similar to other experiences with respect to the relevance of the exchange rate as a fundamental instrument of macroeconomic policy since it reveals close links with price (inflation) behavior and interest rate. The fear of floating seems to make sense when we considered the variance decomposition and the impulse-response function analysis using the wholesale price index regardless of the exchange rate regime, even though the result is more pronounced for the floating period and when using the wholesale price index.

JEL-codes: C22 F31 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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