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UM MODELO MACRODINÂMICO PÓS-KEYNESIANO DE SIMULAÇÃO COM PROGRESSO TÉCNICO ENDÓGENO

José Luís Oreiro () and Breno Pascualote Lemos

Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] from ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]

Abstract: The objective of this article is to present the structure and the first computational simulations of a one-sector macrodynamic model that imbed some elements of the post- keynesian theoretical framework. The theoretical elements embed in the model are: i) determination of the level of output by the principle of effective demand; (ii) differentiated savings propensities of capitalists and workers; iii) mark-up pricing; iv) investment decision based on Minsky´s two price theory; v) importance of firms´s capital structure over the level of aggregate investment; (vi) inflation based on distributive conflict between capitalists and workers; (vii) endogenous money and (ix) endogenous technical progress. The computational simulations of the model reproduce some important features of capitalist dynamics as "cyclical growth" - i. e.; irregular but bounded fluctuations of the growth rate of real GDP -; the occurrence of a single Great Depression over the entire simulation period, what resembles the "rare" nature of great crises in the history of capitalism. The computational simulation also shows that a big reduction in inflation rate in a short period spam will be accompanied by a great financial fragility of productive firms, which, sooner or latter, will generate a great depression. As a corollary of these results follows that the Central Bank should conduct monetary policy in a way to avoid very rapid reduction in inflation rate.

JEL-codes: E12 O11 O41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp, nep-mac and nep-pke
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http://www.anpec.org.br/encontro2005/artigos/A05A056.pdf

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Journal Article: Um Modelo Macrodinâmico Pós-Keynesiano de Simulação com Progresso Técnico Endógeno (2005) Downloads
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