Система прогнозирования и оценивания параметров бюджетной политики Казахстана на основе международного опыта // The system for forecasting and evaluating the parameters of the budgetary policy of Kazakhstan based on international experience

Adam Zhuzbayev

No #2019-1, Working Papers from National Bank of Kazakhstan

Abstract: Был изучен и применен к Казахстану международный опыт прогнозирования показателей фискальной политики и определения направленности фискальной политики. Построение прогнозов налоговых поступлений осуществлялось на основе трех методов: эффективная налоговая ставка; подход, основанный на эластичности изменения налоговых поступлений к налоговой базе; уравнения связки на основе множественной регрессии. // International experience of forecasting indicators and determining the direction of fiscal policy was studied and applied to Kazakhstan. Tax revenue forecasts were made on the basis of three methods: effective tax rate; approach based on the elasticity of tax change receipts to the tax base; bridge equations based on multiple regression.

Keywords: Automatic stabilizers; GDP deflator; GDP; tax revenues; operational balance; budget expenditures; fiscal impulse; fiscal policy; Buoyancy; ETR; OLS; RMSE; автоматические стабилизаторы; дефлятор ВВП; ВВП; налоговые поступления; операционное сальдо; затраты бюджета; фискальный импульс; фискальная политика (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C51 H68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21 pages
Date: 2019
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-cwa and nep-mac
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aob:wpaper:16

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