Analyzing the Dynamics Between Macroeconomic Variables and the Macedonian Stock Exchange Index

Goran Hristovski (), Kiril Jovanovski (), Gjorgji Gockov () and Elena Naumovska ()
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Goran Hristovski: Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics - Skopje
Kiril Jovanovski: Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics - Skopje
Gjorgji Gockov: Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics - Skopje
Elena Naumovska: Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics - Skopje

No 29, Proceedings of the 5th International Conference "Economic and Business Trends Shaping the Future" 2024 from Faculty of Economics-Skopje, Ss Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje

Abstract: This paper presents an empirical analysis of the dynamic relationships between the Macedonian Stock Exchange Index and a set of macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), central bank bills interest rate, interest rates on deposits, inflation, and crude oil prices. Utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, we examine the short-term and long-term impacts of these variables on the stock market from Q1 2009 to Q3 2023. Our ARDL Bounds Test results confirm the presence of a cointegrated relationship, indicating that the stock market and macroeconomic variables are mutually influenced over the long term. In the long run, increases in GDP positively impact the Macedonian stock exchange market, while rising central bank interest rates exert a negative effect on the MBI10 index. While, in the short term, only changes in oil prices and the stock index itself are found to have significant impacts on the MBI-10, with the error correction term indicating a swift adjustment to equilibrium after short-term shocks. This study contributes to the literature by providing nuanced insights into the macroeconomic determinants of stock market performance in North Macedonia, offering implications for policymakers and investors regarding the critical factors influencing market dynamics. The findings underscore the importance of economic growth for stock market vitality, the critical role of monetary policy, and the sensitivity of the stock market to oil price volatility, emphasizing the need for strategic economic policies to foster a stable and growth-conducive market environment.The main objective of this study is a systematisation of relevant published scientific papers on green finance and green transition economy published in the renowned scientific databases Scopus and Web of Science. For this purpose, PRISMA guidelines have been applied. Scientific databases were surveyed with the keywords "green finance" and "green transition", with an emphasis on economy and business-related studies. Areas of application of green finance and literature related to green transition are identified and presented, and in this way, trends over the years, publication year, types of documents, and, most importantly, research gaps are illuminated to provide guidelines for future work.

Keywords: Macedonian Stock Exchange Index; Macroeconomic Variables; ARDL Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E44 G10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 13 pages
Date: 2024-12-15
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