Revisiting the Origins of Populism: Social Determinants of Perón ´s First Victory

José Bercoff and Esteban Nicolini
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Esteban Nicolini: Universidad Carlos III de Madrid/Universidad Nacional de Tucumán

No 374, Working Papers from Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE)

Abstract: An ecological analysis of the general election in Argentina in 1946 suggests that the votes for Perón were higher in districts with high levels of social and economic development (relatively larger proportions literates and industrial employees and relatively higher wages), more affected by electoral fraud and with a smaller specialization in export-oriented activities. The ecological inference analysis strongly suggest that this characterization of districts is also a good characterization of the groups supporting Peron in the election: literates (rather than illiterates), industrial employees (rather than the rest of the population), urban dwellers (rather than rural dwellers) and migrants (rather than natives) had significantly higher probability of voting Perón. The support for Perón originated in a variety of motivations from different social groups that reacted against the traditional political model.

Keywords: Economic voting; Perón presidential election; Ecological Inference (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: N46 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24 pages
Date: 2025-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-his and nep-pol
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aoz:wpaper:374

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