Documentos de Trabajo

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2505: Forecasting Nominal Exchange Rate using Deep Neural Networks

Jonathan Garita-Garita and César Ulate-Sancho

2504: Monetary Policy and the Credit Channel, 2008-2019

Kerry Loaiza-Marín and Jose Pablo Barquero-Romero

2503: The pass-through effect of the nominal exchange rate to prices in Costa Rica

Fabio Gómez-Rodríguez and Catalina Sandoval-Alvarado

2502: Matching to Suppliers in the Production Network: a Quantitative Framework

Alonso Alfaro-Ureña and Paolo Zacchia

2501: Growt-at-risk in Costa Rica: an Open and Small Economy Perspective

Carlos Segura-Rodriguez and David Ching-Vindas

2404: Costa Rica´s Enablers and Bottlenecks in Moving Along the Medical Devices Global Value Chain

Claudio Mora-García and Andy Pearson

2403: Modelos FAVAR con factores estáticos y dinámicos para pronosticar la inflación en Costa Rica

Carlos Segura-Rodriguez

2401: How does investment and trade facilitation affect foreign affiliates performance: Firm-level evidence

Christian Volpe-Martincus, Kerry Loaiza-Marín, Sandro Zolezzi-Hernández and Keyssi Calderón-Medina

2309: Analysis of Productivity in Costa Rica: a Microeconomic Approach

Melissa Vega-Monge and Susan Jiménez-Montero

2308: An Endogenous Regime Switching Model for the Exchange Rate Pass-Through Effect in Costa Rica

Carlos Brenes-Soto, Fabio Gómez-Rodríguez and Manfred Esquivel-Monge

2306: Firm Export Dynamics in Interdependent Markets

Alonso Alfaro-Ureña, Juanma Castro-Vincenzi, Sebastián Fanelli and Eduardo Morales

2305: Responsible Sourcing? Theory and evidence from Costa Rica

Alonso Alfaro-Ureña, Benjamin Faber, Cecile Gaubert, Isabela Manelici and José Pablo Vásquez-Carvajal

2304: Job Displacement Effects and Labor Market Sorting During COVID-19

Jonathan Garita-Garita, Guillermo Pastrana and Pablo Slon-Montero

2303: Functional Time Series in the Analysis of Expected Inflation Survey in Costa Rica

Fabio Gómez-Rodríguez

2302: Estimating Labor Market Slackness in Costa Rica

Jonathan Garita-Garita and Catalina Sandoval-Alvarado

2301: Cash Demand Forecast Models for Costa Rica

Esteban Esteban Méndez-Chacón

2206: The 2008 Financial Crisis and its effect in the Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Costa Rica study how the changes in international trade flows observed after the 2008 financial crisis affected the Costa Rican balance of payments accounts, and how the equilibrium real exchange rate reacted to these changes. To fulfill this objective, we estimate long term relations between the balance of payments accounts and their fundamentals. In these estimations, we include a structural change variable to capture the financial crisis effects on the behavior of these variables. Further, we estimate the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate by using the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate (FEER) and Desired Equilibrium Exchange Rate (DEER) methodologies. The results show that the exports and imports elasticity with respect to the real exchange rate decreased after the crisis. Consequently, by considering the effect of the crisis, we conclude that the real exchange rate falldown observed between 2008 and 2011 can be explained by movementes in its equilibrium value. However, between 2012 and 2016 we observed a small real appreciation, which can be associated to sovereign debt issues in international markets during that period. ***Resumen: Este estudio evalúa el efecto que los cambios permanentes en los flujos de comercio internacional provocados por la crisis financiera de 2008 tuvieron en las distintas cuentas de la balanza de pagos de Costa Rica, y cómo estos cambios afectaron de forma agregada el tipo de cambio real de equilibrio. Con este fin se estiman relaciones de largo plazo entre las cuentas de la balanza de pagos y sus determinantes fundamentales. En cada estimación se incluye una variable de cambio estructural que captura el efecto de la crisis financiera de 2008. Finalmente, se utilizan las metodologías de Tipo de Cambio Real de Equilibrio Fundamental y Tipo de Cambio Real de Equilibrio Deseado para obtener estimaciones del Tipo de Cambio Real de Equilibrio. Los resultados indican que la crisis redujo la elasticidad tanto de las exportaciones como de las importaciones con respecto al Índice de Tipo de Cambio Real (ITCER). Esto permite, al considerar el efecto de la crisis, concluir que la caída en el ITCER observada entre el 2008 y el 2011 se explica por cambios en su valor de equilibrio. Sin embargo, entre 2012 y 2016 se presentó una ligera apreciación real que se puede asociar, al menos en parte, a las emisiones de deuda en los mercados internacionales realizadas por el gobierno de Costa Rica durante ese periodo

Carlos Brenes-Soto, Susan Jiménez-Montero and Carlos Segura-Rodriguez

2205: Impact of COVID-19 Restrictions in Costa Rica: a Local Approach

Jose Pablo Barquero-Romero, Esteban Méndez-Chacón and Carlos Segura-Rodriguez

2204: Voting on a Trade Agreement: Firm Networks and Attitudes Toward Openness

Esteban Méndez-Chacón and Diana Van Patten

2203: Multinationals, Monopsony, and Local Development: Evidence from the United Fruit Company

Esteban Méndez-Chacón and Diana Van Patten

2202: Historical analysis of the real exchange rate in Costa Rica

Alonso Alfaro-Ureña and Catalina Sandoval-Alvarado

2201: Analysis of Productive Linkages of Multinational Enterprises Attracted by CINDE in Costa Rica

Grace Huertas-Morales, Kerry Loaiza-Marín and Laura Ortiz-Coto