Combination of Potential Output Estimates With a Bayesian Method

Alberto Vindas-Quesada () and Carlos Monge-Badilla ()
Additional contact information
Alberto Vindas-Quesada: Department of Economic Research, Central Bank of Costa Rica
Carlos Monge-Badilla: Department of Economic Research, Central Bank of Costa Rica

No 1501, Documentos de Trabajo from Banco Central de Costa Rica

Abstract: In this paper, we calculated the potential output for the Costa Rican economy. First, we applied several different methods to calculate this non-observable variable, such as the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, Hodrick-Prescott filter, production function, Kalman filter, and SVAR. Then, we combined the results of these methods using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and a Phillips curve. Finally, we obtained optimal weights for each estimated potential product and estimated an indicator of the potential output series. ***Resumen: En el documento se realizan distintas metodologías de estimación del producto potencial para la economía costarricense. Dentro de los métodos que se utilizan para estimar esta variable no observable, se pueden mencionar la descomposición Beveridge-Nelson, el filtro Hodrick Prescott, la función de producción, el filtro de Kalman y el VAR estructural (SVAR). Los resultados de estos modelos se promedian empleando el método de Ponderación bayesiana de modelos (Bayesian Model Averaging, BMA), por medio de una curva de Phillips, con el fin de determinar los pesos óptimos para la obtención de un único indicador de producto potencial.

Keywords: Potencial product; Averaging Bayesian; Producto potencial, Ponderación, Bayesiana, Kalman, SVAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C32 E50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2015-07
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Published

Downloads: (external link)
https://repositorioinvestigaciones.bccr.fi.cr/handle/20.500.12506/86 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:apk:doctra:1501

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Documentos de Trabajo from Banco Central de Costa Rica Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Departamento de Investigación Económica ().