Environmental Risk and Averting Behavior: Predictive Validity of Revealed and Stated Preference Data

John Whitehead

No 04-13, Working Papers from Department of Economics, Appalachian State University

Abstract: We conduct predictive validity tests using revealed and stated behavior data from a panel survey of North Carolina coastal households. The application is to hurricane evacuation behavior. Data was initially collected after Hurricane Bonnie led to hurricane evacuations in North Carolina in 1998. Respondents were asked for their behavioral intentions if a hurricane threatened the North Carolina coast during the 1999 hurricane season. Following Hurricanes Dennis and Floyd in 1999, a follow-up survey was conducted to see if respondents behaved as they intended. A jointly estimated revealed and stated behavior model indicates that the hypothetical and real evacuation behavior is based on the same choice process. Using predictions from this model with a hypothetical bias correction we find that it predicts actual evacuation behavior with small forecast error. These results suggest that stated behavior data has some degree of predictive validity.

Date: 2004
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dcm and nep-env
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