The (Un)Reliability of Real-Time Output Gap Estimates with Revised Data

Onur Ince () and David Papell

No 13-02, Working Papers from Department of Economics, Appalachian State University

Abstract: This paper investigates the differences between real-time and ex-post output gap estimates using a newly-constructed international real-time data set over the period from 1973:Q1 to 2012:Q3. We extend the findings in Orphanides and van Norden (2002) for the United States that the use of ex-post information in calculating potential output, not the data revisions themselves, is the major cause of the difference between real-time and ex-post output gap estimates to nine additional OECD countries. The results are robust to the use of linear, quadratic, Hodrick-Prescott, Baxter-King, and Christiano-Fitzgerald detrending methods. By using quasi real-time methods, reliable real-time output gap estimates can be constructed with revised data. Key Words: Output gap, real-time data, data revision, business cycles

JEL-codes: E32 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (16)

Downloads: (external link)
http://econ.appstate.edu/RePEc/pdf/wp1302.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: The (un)reliability of real-time output gap estimates with revised data (2013)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:apl:wpaper:13-02

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Department of Economics, Appalachian State University Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by O. Ashton Morgan ().