Estimating Recreation Benefits of Avoiding Blue Green Algae and Red Tide in South Florida

Beth Forys, Paul Hindsley, O. Ashton Morgan and John C. Whitehead

No 26-05, Working Papers from Department of Economics, Appalachian State University

Abstract: Harmful algal blooms (HABs) reduce the amenity quality and perceived safety of coastal and freshwater resources. Events trigger avoidance behavior by residents and visitors and contribute to broader economic losses. Managers need economic welfare measures that correspond to the intensity categories used in public advisories. We quantify how advisory-defined HAB risk alters the expected value of outdoor recreation trips in South Florida for two hazards: cyanobacteria (blue-green algae; microcystins) and red tide (Karenia brevis). We administer a split-sample contingent valuation survey in four waves (Dynata; April 2024 to March 2025; n = 4,135; 12,405 trip decisions). Respondents first identified the destination of their next South Florida trip from 11 regions and then evaluated randomized trip-cost increases and HAB intensity scenarios aligned with Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission red tide tiers and U.S. EPA microcystin benchmarks. In our preferred model, we address hypothetical bias using a stacked logit model that calibrates for choice certainty and stated attribute non-attendance. In the most conservative specification, per-travel-party willingness to pay for an overnight trip is about US$1,250 under no advisory, falls to roughly US$560Ð660 under low-intensity advisories, and drops to about US$200Ð330 under medium to high HAB intensity. These changes imply avoidance values of approximately US$600Ð700 per trip at low intensity and US$940Ð1,040 at medium to high intensity, with stated trip taking probabilities near 50% at medium/high risk. Holding trip counts fixed (valuing observed trips only) and excluding substitution, a back-of-the-envelope calculation for Lee County, FL visitation over a 60-day event window suggests order-of-magnitude recreational welfare losses of US$17Ð58 million for cyanobacteria and US$60Ð103 million for red tide. These intensity-specific estimates provide transferable inputs for benefitÐcost analysis of South Florida water-management operations and nutrient-reduction policies. Key Words: harmful algal blooms, contingent valuation method, hypothetical bias, attribute non-attendance, choice certainty, willingness to pay

Date: 2026
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