Is It Abenomics or Post-Disaster Recovery? A Counterfactual Analysis

Toshihiko Hayashi
Additional contact information
Toshihiko Hayashi: Asia Pacific Institute of Research

No 1002527, APIR Discussion Paper Series from Asia Pacific Institute of Research

Abstract: This study is an attempt to assess the impact of policy initiatives launched by Japan’s new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Japan’s real GDP in his first quarter in office. We use as a benchmark for measurement a counterfactual estimate of GDP. Since the Japanese economy is also in the midst of reconstruction from the 2011 Tohoku disaster in the first quarter of 2013, we first estimate the counterfactual GDP which would have materialized in the absence of that disaster. We will use a dummy variable method and the statistical method proposed by Cheng Hsia and others. We check the validity of these methods with regard to the Kobe earthquake of 1995, and then estimate the post-disaster counterfactual GDP for the Tohoku disaster. We measure the impact of government policies as the difference between the actual and counterfactual GDP. By doing so, we conclude that government policies have failed to lift Japan’s GDP to the expected level. Even with the help of Abenomics, the gap remains in the rage of 3 to 13 trillion yen per year.

Keywords: Abenomics; Counterfactual Analysis; Post-Disaster Reconstruction; Quarterly GDP (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 16 pages
Date: 2013-06
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.apir.or.jp/ja/research/files/2013/06/DP_35.pdf (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 404 Not Found (http://www.apir.or.jp/ja/research/files/2013/06/DP_35.pdf [301 Moved Permanently]--> https://www.apir.or.jp/ja/research/files/2013/06/DP_35.pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aps:wpaper:1002527

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in APIR Discussion Paper Series from Asia Pacific Institute of Research Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by APIR stuff ().