The Accuracy of Property Forecasting in the UK

Graeme Newell, Brown Stephen and McAllister Patrick

ERES from European Real Estate Society (ERES)

Abstract: Property forecasting is an important component within a property investment strategy. While all forecasting is subject to some degree of uncertainty, a high degree of sophistication has been developed over recent years, with a range of quantitative and qualitative procedures now used in property forecasting. In the UK, the Investment Property Forum (IPF) has conducted a quarterly survey amongst independent property forecasters since 1998. These surveys collect information on future rental growth, capital growth and total returns from a range of UK property forecasters, including property advisors, fund managers and equity brokers. The purpose of this paper is to utilise these IPF surveys to compare these property forecasts with actual property performance to assess the accuracy of property forecasting in the UK over 1998-2002. In particular, the accuracy of this property forecasting will be benchmarked against a number of alternative property forecasting strategies to assess the Ïadded-valueó of property forecasting in the UK.

JEL-codes: R3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003-06-01
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