Demographics and the International Office Markets

Piet Eichholtz and Dirk Brounen

ERES from European Real Estate Society (ERES)

Abstract: We study the effects of demographic changes on the global office markets. Growth in the labor force, the ultimate driver of office demand, is slowing down in some countries and is contracting in others. Based on demographic forecasts, we then formulate expectations about the future shape of the office markets. Our results suggest that office supply generally reacts accurately to changes in demand, but that this will be much harder if demand contracts harder than the write- off rate for offices. If office developers fail to incorporate these ongoing demographic shifts adequately, office portfolios might soon be confronted with structurally high vacancies, decreasing rents and falling values.

JEL-codes: R3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-06-01
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