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UK Real Estate Market Forecast Variation

Patrick McAllister, George Matysiak and Graeme Newell

ERES from European Real Estate Society (ERES)

Abstract: Forecasts play an important role in real estate investment decisions supporting broad asset allocation and real estate fund strategy, including sector and geographic allocation. It is believed that through modelling and forecasting real estate markets improved real estate investment decisions can be made. However, uncertainty and forecast error are intrinsic elements of any forecast. Outside real estate, the topic of forecast disagreement has generated a substantial body of research focussing on sources and causes of disagreement. In this paper we look at the performance of real estate forecasters in the UK and examine the extent of variation in the forecasts. This paper looks at differences in UK quarterly forecasts using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) survey data of independent forecasters over the period 1999-2004. On average 25 real estate forecasters participate in the survey. Consensus forecasts for all participants are presented, as well as separate results for the sub-groups of real estate advisors, real estate fund managers and real estate equity brokers. Results for individual real estate forecasters are not published. However, the IPF have made available this data for the purposes of this research.

JEL-codes: R3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005-01-01
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