THE INFLUENCE OF THE MORTGAGE CRISIS IN THE DEVELOPED COUNTRY ON THE REAL ESTATE VALUE IN THE COUNTRIES WITH TRANSFORMATIONAL ECONOMY - A BELARUSIAN CASE STUDY

Nikolai Siniak and Rusiyanov Leonid

ERES from European Real Estate Society (ERES)

Abstract: The purpose of this study is to examine the behavior of American and European real estate markets after the mortgage crisis in comparison with transformational real estate markets, with an emphasis on the three largest evolving markets like Russian, Belarusian and Ukrainian real estate markets. Country specific financial and macroeconomic time-series data likely to influence yields and prices growth are employed in the analysis. A number of hypotheses about the relative performance of the CEE countries relative to their western counterparts are investigated. This paper analyzes also the relation between incomes, gross grocery product, gross regional product, demographic structure and real estate prices. Based on a macroeconomic multifactor model, a variety of different factors is examined in the time period 1992 to 2007. Predicting the development of real estate markets has always been a major concern for market participants, especially for investors. The amount and depth of data about a subject market as well as the stability of the market's institutional environment largely impact the quality and difficulty of market forecasts. Therefore, the prediction of emerging real estate markets is especially difficult. Using the case of Belarus, this paper explores to which extent economic-mathematical techniques can be helpful in the context of predicting the development of an emerging real estate market. Statistical and econometric techniques are employed to find the drivers that influence the major housing market and its development in future.

JEL-codes: R3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-01-01
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