Strategic Default, Foreclosure Delay and Post-Default Wealth Accumulation

Nandkumar Nayar, McKay Price and Ke Shen

ERES from European Real Estate Society (ERES)

Abstract: Recent research has shown that macroeconomic uncertainty is a signifcant factor that is contemporaneously incorporated into asset returns. Therefore, it should not have a role in predicting future returns. At the same time, separate research has demonstrated that illiquidity is related to future returns. We examine the interplay between these two dynamics in a commercial real estate setting, where (il)liquidity is a defining characteristic of the asset class. Empirical tests confirm the absence of return predictability for liquid assets (publicly traded property portfolios). However, we find significant return predictability predicated on ex ante macroeconomic uncertainty when we examine assets that are not as liquid (directly held property portfolios). Our findings are robust to several refinements, including adjustments for delays in the transaction closing process to establish transaction prices in the directly held market, controls for leverage inherent in publicly traded real estate asset returns, and pro-cyclical liquidity variation in private real estate markets.

Keywords: commercial real estate; Liquidity; Macroeconomic uncertainty; Price return predictability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: R3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-01-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-rmg and nep-ure
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://eres.architexturez.net/doc/oai-eres-id-eres2023-23 (text/html)
https://eres.architexturez.net/system/files/P_20230118075157_2091.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_23

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in ERES from European Real Estate Society (ERES) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Architexturez Imprints ().