Regional early warning systems and prediction models for Austria and Germany

Oscar Fernandez, Martin Prinz, Wolfgang Brunauer and Karin Wagner

ERES from European Real Estate Society (ERES)

Abstract: Although price indices are an important tool for the observation of real estate developments, they lack the potential of indicating possible market exaggerations or “bubble formation”. Several research approaches are commonly used to determine such deviations from market equilibria, among others there are "asset pricing models" and "supply-demand models". We develop a framework of early warning systems for Austria and Germany based on scientifically sound approaches. We explain specific challenges such as finding proper instruments for supply and demand modelling, the treatment of submarkets with sparse or unreliable data, and the application in long-time prediction models.

Keywords: Asset pricing method; Early warning systems; Interest elasticity; Supply elasticity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: R3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-01-01
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