Macroeconomic Shocks and the Business Cycle: Evidence from a Structural Factor Model

Mario Forni and Luca Gambetti

UFAE and IAE Working Papers from Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC)

Abstract: We use a dynamic factor model to provide a semi-structural representation for 101 quarterly US macroeconomic series. We find that (i) the US economy is well described by a number of structural shocks between two and six. Focusing on the four-shock specification, we identify, using sign re- strictions, two non-policy shocks, demand and supply, and two policy shocks, monetary and fiscal. We obtain the following results. (ii) Both supply and demand shocks are important sources of fluc- tuations; supply prevails for GDP, while demand prevails for employment and inflation. (ii) Policy matters, Both monetary and fiscal policy shocks have sizeable effects on output and prices, with little evidence of crowding out; both monetary and fiscal authorities implement important system- atic countercyclical policies reacting to demand shocks. (iii) Negative demand shocks have a large long-run positive effect on productivity, consistently with the Schumpeterian "cleansing" view of recessions.

Keywords: structural factor model; sign restrictions; monetary policy; fiscal policy; demand; supply (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E32 E52 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 46
Date: 2010-03-22
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-cba and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (19)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Macroeconomic Shocks and the Business Cycle: Evidence from a Structural Factor Model (2015)
Working Paper: Macroeconomic Shocks and the Business Cycle: Evidence from a Structural Factor Model (2010)
Working Paper: Macroeconomic Shocks and the Business Cycle: Evidence from a Structural Factor Model (2010)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aub:autbar:850.10

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