Reverse matching for ex-ante policy evaluation
No 2206, DEOS Working Papers from Athens University of Economics and Business
The paper attacks the central policy evaluation question of forecasting the impact of interventions never previously experienced. It introduces treatment effects approach into a cognitive domain not currently spanned by its methodological arsenal. Existing causal effects bounding analysis is adjusted to the ex-ante program evaluation setting. A Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to test how severe the estimates of the proposed approach deviate from the "real" causal effect in the presence of selection and unobserved heterogeneity. The simulation shows that the approach is valid regarding the formulation of the counterfactual states given previous knowledge of the program rules and a sufficiently informative treatment probability. It also demonstrates that the width of the bounds are resilient to several deviations from the conditional independence assumption.
Keywords: Policy evaluation; forecasting; treatment e ects; hypothetical treatment group; bounding and sensitivity analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aue:wpaper:2206
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