Integrated scenario analysis under energy, water and decarbonization stress: the case of Rwanda

Phoebe Koundouri, Angelos Alamanos, Giannis Arampatzidis, Ebun Akinsete, Dimitris Raptis and Anna Triantafyllidou
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Phoebe Koundouri: Dept. of International and European Economic Studies, Athens University of Economics and Business
Ebun Akinsete: ICRE8

No 2618, DEOS Working Papers from Athens University of Economics and Business

Abstract: Crises such as rapid population and demand growth, droughts, resource availability fluctuations, and supply-chain disruptions increasingly expose hidden fragilities in socio-technical systems. At the same time, they generate political momentum and practical urgency for institutional and governance innovation, as emergency measures often become prototypes for routine practice. This paper develops a national-scale, multi-sector water-energy-emissions (W-E-E) scenario model for Rwanda and uses it to test how demand growth, hydrological stress, and supply-side choices jointly shape future energy security and emissions trajectories through 2050. The analysis shows that, under SSP2 and especially SSP5 growth conditions, emissions remain strongly demand-driven; therefore, even ambitious demand-side and supply-side measures are best interpreted as pathways that moderate, rather than fully reverse, emissions growth. The contribution of the study is to identify which combinations of efficiency, electrification, renewable deployment, thermal retirement, and hydrological risk management most effectively reduce system stress and improve resilience under compound crises.

Keywords: Water-energy-emissions nexus; Multi-crisis scenario analysis; LEAP; Hydropower; Energy system resilience; Droughts; Rwanda (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-06-09
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