Werbemarkt Fernsehen: Zur Eignung der Spektralanalyse als Prognoseinstrument

Günter Lang ()

No 274, Discussion Paper Series from Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics

Abstract: Over more than a decade, advertising rates per 1000 viewers, television consumption as well as the number of advertising spots have been steadily increasing. As a consequence, television has developed to the most important medium for the advertising industry and attracts a 40% share of German gross advertising spending. Motivated by the recent slump of advertising rates and of the number of spots, this paper attempts to develop a forecast model for real advertising spending on the German TV market. In a first step, spectral analysis is used to identify the most important cycles on the advertising market. In a second step, the identified cycles are entering a regression model which is the basis for making forecasts. To evaluate the forecast quality, the results are compared to a standard ARIMA model. The estimations are based on monthly data of the German TV advertising market from 1990 to 2004. Actually, the results show that the estimated cyclical pattern describes the trends on the TV advertising market very well. The cycle model is therefore a useful tool for making ex-ante forecasts of real advertising spending. Underlining the quality of the approach, the ARIMA approach is performing significantly worse than the introduced cycle model.

Keywords: advertising; ARIMA; cycles; forecast; spectral analysis; television (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 L82 M37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005-03
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://opus.bibliothek.uni-augsburg.de/opus4/files/71170/274.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aug:augsbe:0274

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Discussion Paper Series from Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics Universitaetsstrasse 16, D-86159 Augsburg, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dr. Simone Raab-Kratzmeier ().