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Estimating the Benefits of Hilmer and Related Reforms

John Quiggin ()

CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University

Abstract: In a recent report (IC 1995a) the Industry Commission (IC) estimates that the implementation of the Hilmer Report and related reforms will yield a GDP gaim of around 5.4 per cent. In this paper, assumption are subject to a detailed critique. It is argued that most of the estimated productivity gains are grossly over-optimistic, representing upper bounds of possible achievement rather than likely outcomes. Furthermore, it is argued that the dominant flow-on effects of microeconomic reform will be negative, arising from the fact that at least some of the workers directly displaced by reform will permanently displaced from the employed labour force.

Keywords: PRODUCTIVITY; EVALUATION; ECONOMIC REFORM (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D24 D78 N47 N56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23 pages
Date: 1995
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