Recovery from Financial Crises in Peripheral Economies, 1870-1913
Peter Bent ()
No 7, CEH Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University
What drives recoveries after financial crises? I address this question for the 1870-1913 �first era of globalization,� a period when international economic integration meant that terms of trade movements could have significant national-level impacts, but before governments were engaged in widespread economic management. Protectionism was one of the few economic policy options available at this time. The impacts of these two factors�terms of trade and tariff rates�over this period have been studied before. But previous studies have not looked specifically at how these factors influenced recoveries from financial crises. I find that tariff shocks had a positive impact on GDP in post-crisis periods, while terms of trade shocks had a slightly negative impact. The tariff results are especially pronounced in temperate economies. Overall this suggests that national governments, through trade policies, played a more significant role in shaping economic outcomes during this period than is typically recognized.
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