On Prosperity and Posterity: The Need for Fiscal Discipline in a Monetary Union
Vítor Gaspar and
Additional contact information
Vítor Gaspar: European Central Bank
Bernhard Winkler: European Central Bank
No 30, Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) from Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial, Universidade de Aveiro
We show how in a Blanchard-Yaari, overlapping generations framework, perfect substitutability of government bonds in Monetary Union tempts governments to exploit the enlarged common pool of savings. In Nash equilibrium all governments increase their bond financed transfers to current generations (prosperity effect) at the expense of future generations (posterity effect). The resulting deficit bias occurs even if one assumes that before Monetary Union countries had eliminated their deficit bias by designing appropriate domestic institutions. The paper provides a rationale for an increased focus on fiscal discipline in Monetary Union, without the need to assume imperfect credibility of existing Treaty provisions or to refer to extreme situations involving sovereign default. We draw on existing empirical evidence to argue that the degree of government bond substitutability within the European Monetary Union is an order of magnitude larger than in the global economy.
Keywords: fiscal spillover effects; common pool; overlapping generations; bond market integration; fiscal discipline; fiscal rules; European Monetary Union (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D62 E61 E63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36 pages
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-mac, nep-mon and nep-pbe
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 404 Not Found (https://www.ua.pt/egi/ReadObject.aspx?obj=11014 [302 Moved Temporarily]--> https://api-portal.ua.pt/api/v1/file/11014)
Working Paper: On prosperity and posterity: the need for fiscal discipline in a monetary union (2004)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ave:wpaper:302005
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) from Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial, Universidade de Aveiro Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Marta Ferreira Dias ().