Inflation Expectations and Political Polarization: Evidence from the Cooperative Election Study

Ethan Struby and Christina Farhart
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Christina Farhart: Carleton College

No 2024-01, Working Papers from Carleton College, Department of Economics

Abstract: Using a unique, nationally representative survey from the 2022 midterm elections, we investigate the partisan divide in beliefs about inflation and monetary policy. We find that party identity is predictive of inflation forecasts even after conditioning on beliefs about both past inflation and the Federal Reserve’s long-run inflation target. Partisan forecast differences are driven by respondents who express low generalized trust in others and have a high degree of political knowledge; high-trust and lowknowledge partisans make similar forecasts all else equal. This finding is consistent with the literature in political psychology that examines the endorsement of conspiracy theories and political misinformation. We argue that the partisan divide in consumer inflation surveys is consistent with strategic responses by partisans.

JEL-codes: E30 E31 E70 E71 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mon and nep-pol
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