Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

Alexander Glas and Matthias Hartmann ()

No 612, Working Papers from University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics

Abstract: We analyze the determinants of average individual inflation uncertainty and disagreement based on data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters. We empirically confirm the implication from a theoretical decomposition of inflation uncertainty that disagreement is an incomplete approximation to overall uncertainty. Both measures are associated with macroeconomic conditions and indicators of monetary policy, but the relations differ qualitatively. In particular, average individual inflation uncertainty is higher during periods of expansionary monetary policy, whereas disagreement rises during contractionary periods.

Keywords: Inflation uncertainty; Disagreement; Density forecast; Central banking; Survey of Professional Forecasters. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-03-15
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-eec, nep-mac and nep-mon
Note: This paper is part of http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/view/schriftenreihen/sr-3.html
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (31)

Downloads: (external link)
https://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-204344 Frontdoor page on HeiDOK (text/html)
https://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver ... tmann_2016_dp612.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (2016)
Working Paper: Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (2016)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:awi:wpaper:0612

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Gabi Rauscher ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).