Possibly Nonstationary Cross-Validation

Federico M Bandi, Valentina Corradi and Daniel Wilhelm

No 11/16, CeMMAP working papers from Institute for Fiscal Studies

Abstract: Cross-validation is the most common data-driven procedure for choosing smoothing parameters in nonparametric regression. For the case of kernel estimators with iid or strong mixing data, it is well-known that the bandwidth chosen by crossvalidation is optimal with respect to the average squared error and other performance measures. In this paper, we show that the cross-validated bandwidth continues to be optimal with respect to the average squared error even when the datagenerating process is a -recurrent Markov chain. This general class of processes covers stationary as well as nonstationary Markov chains. Hence, the proposed procedure adapts to the degree of recurrence, thereby freeing the researcher from the need to assume stationary (or nonstationary) before inference begins. We study finite sample performance in a Monte Carlo study. We conclude by demonstrating the practical usefulness of cross-validation in a highly-persistent environment, namely that of nonlinear predictive systems for market returns.

Date: 2016-03-12
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cemmap.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/CWP1116.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:azt:cemmap:11/16

DOI: 10.1920/wp.cem.2016.1116

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CeMMAP working papers from Institute for Fiscal Studies Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dermot Watson ().