Nowcasting using regression on signatures

Samuel N. Cohen, Giulia Mantoan, Lars Nesheim, Ã ureo de Paula, Arthur Turrell and Lingyi Yang

No 17/26, CeMMAP working papers from Institute for Fiscal Studies

Abstract: We introduce a new method of nowcasting using regression on path signatures. Path signatures capture the geometric properties of sequential data. Because signatures embed observations in continuous time, they naturally handle mixed frequencies and missing data. We prove theoretically, and demonstrate with simulations, that regression on signatures both subsumes the linear Kalman filter and has desirable consistency properties. Nowcasting with signatures is more robust to disruptions in data series than previous methods, making it useful in stressed times (for example, during COVID-19). This approach is performant in nowcasting US GDP growth, and in nowcasting UK unemployment.

Date: 2026-10-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets and nep-for
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:azt:cemmap:17/26

DOI: 10.47004/wp.cem.2026.1726

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