BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers

From BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy
Via Röntgen, 1 - 20136 Milano - Italy.
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24234: The Political Economy of Religious Spending

Luca Vitale and Massimo Pulejo

24233: Machine Learning in Portfolio Decisions

Manuela Pedio, Massimo Guidolin and Giulia Panzeri

24232: Does Macroeconomic Predictability Enhance the Economic Value of Hedge Funds to Risk-Averse Investors?

Monia Magnani

24231: Can Monetary Policies Inflate a Stock Market Bubble? A Regime Switching Model of Periodically Collapsing Bubbles

Monia Magnani

24230: A Few Bad Apples? Criminal Charges, Political Careers, and Policy Outcomes

Diogo G. C. Britto, Gianmarco Daniele, Marco Le Moglie, Paolo Pinotti and Breno Sampaio

24229: Money Talks to Autocrats, Bullets Whistle to Democrats: Political Influence under Different Regimes

Thea How Choon, Giovanna Marcolongo and Paolo Pinotti

24228: The Impact of Market Sentiment and Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Government Bond (Mis)-pricing

Pietro Munari

24227: Identifying the General Equilibrium Effects of Narcotics Enforcement

Zachary Porreca

24226: A Popular Backlash Against Globalization?

Piero Stanig, Italo Colantone and Gianmarco Ottaviano

24225: Regional and Aggregate Economic Consequences of Environmental Policy Abstract: This paper shows how to combine microeconometric evidence on the effects of environmental policy with a macroeconomic model, accounting for general equilibrium spillovers that have mostly been ignored in the literature. To this end, we study the effects of a recent US air pollution policy. We use regression evidence on the policy’s impact across industries and local labor markets to calibrate a quantitative spatial model allowing for general equilibrium spillovers. Our model implies that the policy lowered emissions by 11.1%, but destroyed approximately 250’000 jobs. Ignoring spillovers overestimates job losses in polluting industries, but underestimates job losses in clean industries

Tom Schmitz, Italo Colantone and Gianmarco Ottaviano

24224: Bayesian nonparametric methods for macroeconomic forecasting

Massimiliano Marcellino and Michael Pfarrhofer

24223: Literacy and Financial Education: Private Providers, Public Certification and Political Preferences

Carolina Guerini, Donato Masciandaro and Alessia Papini

24222: Who should buy structured investment products and why?

Massimo Guidolin, Giacomo Leonetti and Manuela Pedio

24221: Economic Shocks and Assimilation Policies: Phylloxera and Educational Expansion in French Algeria

Mara P. Squicciarini, Gianandrea Lanzara, Sara Lazzaroni and Paolo Masella

24220: Do US Active Mutual Funds Make Good of Their ESG Promises? Evidence from Portfolio Holdings

Massimo Guidolin and Monia Magnani

24219: EDMocracy: populism and democratic dissatisfaction in Europe

Federico Favaretto and Michele Mariani

24218: Taylor Rule and Shadow Rates: theory and empirical analysis

Camilla Lupiani

24217: Trends in central bank independence: a de-jure perspective

Davide Romelli

24216: Digging Up Trenches: Populism, Selective Mobility, and the Political Polarization of Italian Municipalities

Luca Bellodi, Frederic Docquier, Stefano Iandolo, Massimo Morelli and Riccardo Turati

23214: Pro-Social Backlash: The Effect of Far-Right Success on Voluntary Welfare Provision

Massimo Pulejo

23213: Financial Education between Market and State: Private Commitment, Conflicts of Interest and Public Certification

Carolina Guerini and Donato Masciandaro

23212: Sanction Evasion Through Tax Havens

Kerim Can Kavakli, Giovanna Marcolongo and Diego Zambiasi

23211: ENVIRONMENTAL CRIME REVENUES, CORRUPTION AND MONEY LAUNDERING: THE ROLE OF THE REAL-ESTATE

Donato Masciandaro and Raffaella Barone

23210: Modelling the Term Structure with Trends in Yields and Cycles in Excess Returns

Carlo A. Favero and Ruben Fernandez-Fuertes

23209: Monetary Policy in the COVID Era and Beyond: the Fed vs the ECB

Carlo A. Favero and Ruben Fernandez-Fuertes

23208: Politicians, Trust, Financial Literacy and Financial Education: When Do Politicians Care?

Donato Masciandaro

23207: Attacking Women or their Policies? Understanding Violence against Women in Politics

Gianmarco Daniele, Gemma Dipoppa and Massimo Pulejo

23206: Politicians, Trust and Financial Literacy: When Do Politicians Care?

Donato Masciandaro

23205: Fiscal Dominance, Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates: Lessons from Early-Modern Venice

Donato Masciandaro, Davide Romelli and Stefano Ugolini

23204: The Shift to Commitment Politics and Populism:Theory and Evidence

Luca Bellodi, Massimo Morelli, Antonio Nicolo' and Paolo Roberti

23203: Time-Varying Risk Aversion and International Stock Returns

Massimo Guidolin, Erwin Hansen and Gabriel Cabrera

23202: Strong vs. Stable: The Impact of ESG Ratings Momentum and their Volatility on the Cost of Equity Capital

Ian Berk, Massimo Guidolin and Monia Magnani

23201: What do politicians think of technocratic institutions? Experimental Evidence on the European Central Bank

Federico M. Ferrara, Donato Masciandaro, Manuela Moschella and Davide Romelli

23200: Blended Identification in Structural VARs

Andrea Carriero, Massimiliano Marcellino and Tommaso Tornese

23199: A Euro Area Term Structure Model with Time Varying Exposures

Tommaso Tornese

23198: Exchange Rates and Government Debt

Federico Favaretto

23197: Pay-as-they-get-in: Attitudes towards Migrants and Pension Systems

Tito Boeri, Matteo Gamalerio, Massimo Morelli and Margherita Negri

23196: How Elastic and Predictable Money Should Be: Flexible Monetary Policy Rules from the Great Moderation to the New Normal Times (1993-2023)

Donato Masciandaro

23195: Internal Ratings, Non-Performing Loans, and Bank Opacity: Evidence from Analysts’ Forecasts

Brunella Bruno, Immacolata Marino and Giacomo Nocera

23194: Politicians’ Incentives and the Congested Budget Effect: Evidence from Italian Municipalities

Luca Bellodi and Massimo Morelli

23193: Political Elites, Urban Institutions And Long-Run Persistence: The King Owned Towns

Elisa Borghi and Donato Masciandaro

22192: Job Loss, Unemployment Insurance and Health: Evidence from Brazil

Guilherme Amorim, Diogo Britto, Alexandre Fonseca and Breno Sampaio

22191: Automation and Public Policy Preferences

Colombe Ladreit

22190: The Empirical Performance of Option Implied Volatility Surface-Driven Optimal Portfolios

Massimo Guidolin and Kai Wang

22189: Has Financial Fair Play Changed European Football?

Donato Masciandaro, Ariela Caglio, Sébastien Laffitte and Gianmarco Ottaviano

22188: Macro Uncertainty in the Long Run

Andrea Carriero, Massimiliano Marcellino and Tommaso Tornese

22187: Central Bank Communication and Social Media: From Silence to Twitter

Donato Masciandaro, Oana Peia and Davide Romelli

22186: Intergenerational Mobility in the Land of Inequality

Diogo G.C. Britto, Alexandre Fonseca, Paolo Pinotti, Breno Sampaio and Lucas Warwar

22185: The Common Determinants of Legislative and Regulatory Complexity

Dana Foarta and Massimo Morelli

22184: Urban Autonomy: Is China’s Belt and Road Initiative a Zero-Sum Game?

Veljko Fotak, William Megginson and Yi-Da Tsai