Growth, Convergence and Public Investment. A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

Roberto Leon-Gonzalez and Daniel Montolio

No 106, Working Papers in Economics from Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia

Abstract: The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we study the determinants of economic growth among a wide set of potential variables for the Spanish provinces (NUTS3). Among others, we include various types of private, public and human capital in the group of growth factors. Also, we analyse whether Spanish provinces have converged in economic terms in recent decades. The second objective is to obtain cross-section and panel data parameter estimates that are robust to model speci cation. For this purpose, we use a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach. Bayesian methodology constructs parameter estimates as a weighted average of linear regression estimates for every possible combination of included variables. The weight of each regression estimate is given by the posterior probability of each model.

JEL-codes: C11 H54 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31 pages
Date: 2003
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm and nep-pbe
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Working Paper: GROWTH, CONVERGENCE AND PUBLIC INVESTMENT. A BAYESIAN MODEL AVERAGING APPROACH
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